Decision Engineering

Decision Engineering
for consumer brands.

Built to run decisions before they're made. We route consequential commercial choices — pricing, positioning, ad concepts, launches — through calibrated synthetic populations to forecast how real buyers will respond before any budget is committed.

Run a Decision → What is a Decision Engineer? →
88.7% Distribution accuracy · Pew US
85.3% Distribution accuracy · Pew India
4.9× Closer to human ceiling than frontier LLMs
Outcome calibration→ In progress · honest receipts on /calibration
Live simulation
01 — Decision
—
→
02 — Calibrated Population
Converts Uncertain Won't
→
03 — Forecast
0 agents
Query population
Weight responses
Build forecast
Score confidence
→
04 — Recommendation
Recommendation
The calibration loop

Decisions compound.

Every decision routed through Simulatte feeds the calibration index. Our predictions sharpen with every engagement — for you and across the platform.

Decisions engineered this month 47
01 — Run
Simulate
A decision scenario runs against a population of psychologically calibrated agents. 200+ distinct behavioral profiles, each with persistent identity and working memory.
→
02 — Learn
Capture
Every response — preference, reasoning, deviation from baseline — becomes a calibration data point. The system sees what it got right and what it missed.
→
03 — Improve
Compound
The model recalibrates. Persona identity persists — core beliefs retained, working memory resets. Your second engagement costs a fraction of your first and delivers more.
Accuracy compounds over time
Applications

Before the real
world tests you.

01
Before you launch
Test ad concepts, packaging, and positioning against your real buyer segments. Pick the winning concept before media spend.
Ad Concept Resonance Test →
02
Before you price
Find the breakpoint and the story buyers tell themselves at it. Where price stops being a feature and starts being a barrier.
Pricing Resistance Simulation →
03
Before you commit
Validate a concept before investing in production. Surface the segments who'll buy and the ones who'll bounce.
Concept Validity Test →
Evidence

Numbers you can take into a board room.

88.7%
Accuracy vs Pew Research US benchmark across 15 attitudinal questions. 2.3pp from the human self-consistency ceiling.
Pew Research ATP · 15 questions · Sprint B-10
85.3%
Accuracy vs Pew + CSDS-Lokniti India benchmark. Religion × caste × region × language × political-lean — 5 intersecting axes. The only system to resolve Indian cultural complexity at benchmark.
Pew + CSDS-Lokniti India · Sarvam infrastructure
4.9×
More accurate than the average frontier LLM on the India benchmark. GPT-4o — the best LLM tested — reached 75.6%. More capable ≠ more calibrated.
10 LLMs tested · 5,878 SHA-256 verified API calls · See full comparison →
Client outcomes

What the simulation
found.

Real engagement results. The non-obvious insight is always the one worth paying for.

CS-011
Fintech · India
Savings Habit Decay & AutoPay Churn
+41pts
Income predicted almost nothing about who churned. Identity around saving predicted everything.
Read case →
CS-012
E-Commerce · Amazon
The Keyword That Blocked Its Own Market
83%
One diet keyword suppressed 83% of the addressable audience. Nobody at the company had noticed.
Read case →
CS-013
D2C · Creator Economy
Creator Purchase Authority Audit
3×
The creator with 10% of the followers was converting 3× better. Reach is not authority.
Read case →
CS-014
FMCG · Brand
The Brand Name Ceiling
0/3
Brand architecture options tested. The category-defining name had become a psychological ceiling on expansion.
Read case →
CS-015
Consumer Goods · India
Tier 2/3 Market Entry — The Channel Nobody Budgets For
5 cities
Purchase ran through kirana networks and local trust — channels outside the brand's entire go-to-market plan.
Read case →
View all client studies →
Run a Decision

Bring us your next
consequential decision.

We'll run it through a calibrated population. Same day. A Decision Artifact lands in your inbox — recommendation, confidence interval, Calibration Card.

Run a Decision → Read client studies

Same-day automated delivery · Calibration Card included on every run